Bitcoin’s 2028 halving price target is projected to be $435,000, according to historical data. Despite the association of halving with Bitcoin bull cycles, the current surge is predominantly fueled by ETF inflows, contends Hao Yang from Bybit.
Since the last Bitcoin halving in 2020, the Bitcoin price surged by approximately 650%. If this historical pattern repeats, Bitcoin could potentially attain the $435,000 mark before the 2028 halving.
The upcoming 2024 Bitcoin halving is imminent, with less than three weeks remaining. Based on historical chart patterns, Bitcoin’s current price of around $66,000 might translate to $434,280 per coin by the 2028 halving if the cycle mirrors the current trend.
However, post-halving rallies in Bitcoin have shown diminishing returns over the years. From virtually no value before the first halving in 2012, Bitcoin soared to $12.50, marking over a 12,400% increase. Subsequent halvings witnessed reduced percentage increases, culminating in the current 658% surge. Extrapolating this trend suggests a 360% rally in the next cycle, potentially leading to a Bitcoin price of approximately $303,600 at the 2028 halving.
Yang suggests that the recent price surge is unrelated to the impending halving and is primarily driven by inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. He emphasizes the lack of evidence supporting a positive correlation between halving events and BTC price, urging a cautious interpretation of historical data. Nevertheless, the prospect of a six-figure BTC price becomes even more plausible if Bitcoin ETFs surpass gold ETFs in the coming years.
